Friday is becoming blockbuster day in the NHL.
Last Friday, Connor Hellebuyck was on the move. A little over a year ago, Quinn Hughes was dealt on a Friday. So were Mikko Rantanen and Matthew Tkachuk before him. Now we’ve learned this past Friday that Nikita Kucherov doesn’t intend to re-sign with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and he has requested a trade. That news was nothing short of colossal, and it has the potential to completely reshape the balance of the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference.
A Kucherov extension was always going to be complicated. He’s an elite player coming off a Hart Trophy in a market that has exploded, but Kucherov is also going to be 34 when this new deal kicks in, and the Lightning are known for trying to get a bargain in contract negotiations. They still don’t have a $10-million player and a Kucherov extension would blow their internal cap out of the water.
However, that’s the reality of today’s NHL. There’s no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. If the Lightning won’t give Kucherov what he wants, someone else will next summer, regardless of his age. Now Julien BriseBois finds himself in a similar position to Bill Guerin, having a player unsigned beyond this season who is a critical piece of a Stanley Cup push. Keeping Kucherov and Quinn Hughes in the fold would no doubt help the Lightning and the Minnesota Wild achieve their goals, but you also run the major risk of losing them for nothing.
Wild and Lightning should trade Hughes and Kucherov if they don’t extend
BriseBois was emphatic in a statement following the Kucherov news that he has no plans to trade his superstar. It’s the smart thing to say. You aren’t going to get the best return if everyone thinks you are desperate to move him imminently, and it buys you time in case there’s still a chance fences can be mended. That’s the message BriseBois is putting out to the world, but internally his wheels have to be spinning. Kucherov has 10 teams he can be traded to, so BriseBois has options.
Bill Guerin is in a similar situation. Not in the sense that Hughes has officially said he won’t re-sign or wants out, but simply because of the fact that we’ve hit November and the Wild defender still hasn’t put pen to paper on an extension. Every day that passes has to make Guerin very nervous considering what he gave up to get Hughes less than a year ago. At least for Guerin, Hughes doesn’t have any trade protection. Theoretically, Guerin could trade him anywhere he wishes, although the return would be better if Hughes joined his new team with an extension.
Trading Hughes and Kucherov would at least ensure Guerin and BriseBois get a haul back for their players.
Overreaction? No
When Colorado dealt Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes, it should’ve opened up the eyes of general managers across the league. The Avalanche were and still are in a Stanley Cup window, but didn’t hesitate to move Rantanen when they felt it would be difficult to re-sign him. Martin Necas came back the other way, and the Avs really haven’t missed a beat since. The Canes ended up having to flip Rantanen to Dallas, where he landed them Logan Stankoven and some good draft capital. Stankoven was a key piece in Carolina’s Cup run.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Wild or Lightning will get a player back of Necas’s or Stankoven’s calibre who will help them right away. Teams interested in Kucherov and Hughes may want to package a couple of first-round picks in return as the main part of the deal, and that’s OK. Tampa and Minnesota could then flip those picks somewhere else if they want to get an impact player back. The Ottawa Senators did this with Brady Tkachuk, as they sent one of the first-round picks they received back from the Florida Panthers to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for William Eklund. The Sens did the right thing, as they took the best return possible for their asset and then used part of said return to upgrade their roster immediately.
Kucherov and Hughes would be the best player in any trade they’re in, so it’s understandable why their respective teams would be hesitant to move them while in win-now mode. But the Rantanen trade should serve as a blueprint that you can move a superstar and still come out fine on the other side.
Leafs should give Stolarz more playing time amid Bobrovsky’s struggles
The Sergei Bobrovsky experiment in Toronto has been a mixed bag so far. There’s been some good, but lately, a fair bit of bad. Bobrovsky has conceded a few soft goals in his past two starts, costing the Maple Leafs at least a point or two in the standings. Anthony Stolarz, on the other hand, has bounced back after a tough season a year ago to offset some of Bobrovsky’s shortcomings. Outside of a trying game against Utah, Stolarz has mostly been solid, sporting a 5-1-0 record and a .910 save percentage. Bobrovsky has played almost twice as many games as Stolarz, and even though he comes in on a big contract, the Leafs may have no choice but to give their backup more starts going forward, with every point being precious in a tough Atlantic Division.
Overreaction? Yes
Unfortunately for the Leafs, they are pot committed when it comes to Bobrovsky. Stolarz has never played more than 34 games in a season, and we’ve seen what happens when the Leafs try to increase his workload. Toronto went to Stolarz in 12 of its first 15 games last season when Joseph Woll wasn’t available, and it went horribly. Stolarz’s numbers dipped, and he ended up suffering a significant injury. The sweet spot for Stolarz is probably one start per week. He’s shown he can deliver quality starts in that scenario. Maybe you could mix in an extra Stolarz start here and there, but it’s risky trying to get away with more than that.
The Leafs are probably going to have to start Bobrovsky in around 50 games and hope he finds his game in short order. If Bobrovsky can get to league-average numbers with that workload and it’s offset by regular quality outings from Stolarz, Toronto’s goaltending should be fine. However, right now that feels like a big if.
Alex Tuch has been the best off-season acquisition
Only eight players have at least 10 goals this season, and Alex Tuch has done it in the fewest games. Tuch topped out at 36 goals in his best season, and now he’s on pace for a whopping 70. He obviously will slow down at some point and won’t hit 70, but the Washington Capitals seem like a perfect fit for his skill set, and it seems very likely Tuch will finish with a career-best campaign. His size and skill give the Caps another big body in their forward group that is suddenly one of the most formidable in the NHL. I’m sure Washington expected Tuch to bring a new dimension to its lineup, but even the Capitals have to be pleasantly surprised with how impactful he’s been. Tuch may even be the best addition to any team from this past off-season.
Overreaction? No
There are only a couple of players who can even rival what Tuch’s done so far on a new team. Kirill Marchenko was technically an off-season acquisition, as he was traded just before game one and has scored 14 points in 14 games, but only has six goals. Brady Tkachuk has more than a point per game and a couple of hat tricks, though he started off slow. Tuch is also probably more critical to the makeup of the Caps than the other two are to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers, respectively. Washington’s forward group wasn’t as deep as the other two before Tuch arrived, and now it feels more on par with the league’s best, especially when you factor in the additions of Jordan Kyrou and Boone Jenner. The Capitals definitely appear to have hit a home run where Tuch is concerned.
Devils are a Cup contender after trading for Hellebuyck
Two games into the Connor Hellebuyck era in New Jersey and things are going pretty well. Hellebuyck showed little to no rust in a pair of victories this week against the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights, turning aside 36 of 39 shots. The Devils overall have surprised somewhat to start the season, winning nine of their first 14 games after missing the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Now with Hellebuyck to go along with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Nico Hischier and others, New Jersey has a pretty good core in place to contend in a wide-open Metropolitan Division. The Devils have also allowed the seventh fewest high-danger chances in the league. Sheldon Keefe has this team playing well at both ends of the ice.
The Devils could make a case that they’re the second-best team in the division and may have a legitimate chance to compete for a Stanley Cup this spring.
Overreaction? Yes
There’s no denying the Devils are a much better team with Hellebuyck in the fold, but calling them a true Cup contender may be premature. New Jersey would still be in tough to beat deeper teams like the Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens or Carolina Hurricanes in a seven-game series. The Devils defence also still leaves much to be desired. Luke Hughes appears to be getting better every game and is averaging around 24 minutes per night, and Brett Pesce and Dougie Hamilton are still solid players, but the Devils are lacking at least one more top-four blue-liner to take them to the next level. Plus, Hellebuyck’s past three post-seasons have fallen well short of the standard he’s set in the regular season. That said, should the Devils end up landing a certain Hughes brother who is currently playing in Minnesota, there would be no debate about New Jersey’s Cup contender status.
Flames could get a decent asset for Cooley via trade
Don’t let Devin Cooley’s incredible interviews distract you from the fact that he may be one of the hottest goalies in the NHL right now. The Calgary Flames netminder was 4-0-0 in his past four starts before getting injured earlier this week, allowing just six goals over that stretch and boasting a .952 save percentage. He’s also posted 2.2 goals saved above expected. Those games have come against some good competition, too. Cooley knocked off Minnesota, Carolina and Toronto in three of the four wins.
Cooley’s run has been even more important for the Flames since Dustin Wolf is off to a very rough start to the season and Calgary has now found its footing after losing five in a row to open the campaign. With the Flames rebuilding, they could have an opportunity to flip Cooley to a goalie-needy team at some point in exchange for a decent return.
Overreaction? No
Now that the Hellebuyck saga is over, anyone who needs a goalie will have to look elsewhere for help. Cooley still hasn’t hit 50 career NHL games, but he’s proving last season was no fluke. His numbers were impressive last year in 31 games, and he’s improving them this year on a worse team. Injuries are inevitable, and at some point a team may need someone like Cooley, who is very affordable and has minimal term, for insurance between the pipes. The Flames have turned things around after a slow start, but they’re likely hoping to be picking in the top five next summer to bring in another impact player. Calgary probably isn’t good enough as a whole to be a playoff team, and the way Cooley is playing could end up pushing it out of the top five, but still short of the playoffs. Ultimately, the mushy middle isn’t where you want to be.
